It’s been six months into 2024 (literally how?) so it’s time to check in on how well SpaceX is doing in getting to its 148 launch goal. So far SpaceX has had one of its best years yet, but is it enough to reach that hefty goal? We’ll see.
SpaceX ended the first half of 2024 with a launch rate of one launch every 2.7 days, a 29% increase from last year’s 3.8 days. Last year SpaceX ended up getting 96 Falcon launches – 98 including Starship. That puts SpaceX on pace to launch at least 135 launches.
At the beginning of the year Jon Edwards, VP of Falcon Launch at SpaceX, shared the company increased its launch manifest from 144 to 148 missions for the Falcon 9 and Heavy vehicles.
Currently, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Heavy rockets have launch 305 times. If SpaceX would reach that 148 launch goal by the end of the year, that would mean 2024 would be responsible for almost 40% of the Falcon family’s entire launch history.
Here are a few other launch stats for this year:
- Total Falcon 9 Launches: 66
- Total Falcon Heavy Launches: 1
- Total Starship Launches: 2
- Non-Starlink Missions: 20
- Reused Boosters: 64
- Landings: 67
- Total East Coast Launches: 45
- Total West Coast Launches: 22
- Most Used Launch Site: SLC-40 (32)
- Most Used Ground Pad: LZ-1 (9)
- Most Used Droneship: A Shortfall of Gravitas (20)
The big question is: How many more rockets can SpaceX launch this year? Not including Starship, simply doubling its first half launches will get you to 134, its current launch rate would give you 135, but knowing that the company makes big end of year pushes would have me guess something closer to that 148 goal.
Normal for the industry, SpaceX usually doesn’t meet its goals stated by the end of the year. Most of this is due to issues outside its control like weather or payload readiness. So saying SpaceX would meet or beat its 148 goal without including Starship test flight wouldn’t be realistic. Schedules always slip in spaceflight and that usually means to the right.
However, the Falcon 9 is on track to once again be the most flown rocket in the world in 2024. A title once exclusively owned by nation owned rockets, the Falcon 9 will do it thanks to the needed launch rates of SpaceX’s Starlink internet service.
Over 70% of the Falcon 9’s year-to-date missions were for Starlink, deploying thousands of satellites. This has made Starlink a much more reliable and capable internet service than what it was just a few years ago. Starlink will continue to be a driver for SpaceX’s launch cadence, both for the Falcon 9 and Starship.
Given all of this, my guess for SpaceX end of year launch total will be 144 with Starship, 140 without. Let me know your guess below.
