The slide follows what had been a euphoric start to trading. SpaceX went public on June 12 in an offering that raised nearly $86 billion, at a price of $135 per share chosen by CEO Elon Musk and the company. Its stock initially climbed above $200 in the days after listing, briefly giving it a valuation that rivaled tech giants like Amazon and Microsoft. Shares have lost value nearly every week since that high point, declining for four consecutive sessions this week after the company entered the Nasdaq-100.
Some of the volatility stems from how little of the company actually trades. Just 4 percent of SpaceX’s total shares are available on the Nasdaq, where it lists under the ticker SPCX. That small float, combined with intense and constant attention on the company, has produced wild swings during the first month of trading. Markets also appear to be sobering up on Musk’s vision for the company, part of a broader deflation in tech stocks over the past month. Bonds the company sold in the wake of the IPO are suffering as well.
A prolonged downturn could have wider effects because SpaceX’s stock price is treated as a signal of how investors view the promises Musk has made about what his company can accomplish. The IPO also set the table for other large technology companies, including Anthropic and OpenAI, both of which have filed confidentially for offerings. Neither has set a date, and SpaceX’s stock is being watched closely to gauge how successful those IPOs could be.
SpaceX now faces another early test of its stock’s durability. On Thursday the company will conduct its first Starship test launch since the IPO, and its first flight since the vehicle experienced a booster failure in May. Starship remains in development and is prone to failures, the result of the company’s fly, fail, fix approach. On this flight the company again does not plan to recover the Starship booster or upper stage, instead simulating a landing in the Gulf of Mexico. That means both parts of the system will end in an explosion regardless of whether the flight plan proceeds smoothly.
The stock’s break below its IPO floor is described as an ominous sign because the number of shares available for trading on the Nasdaq is set to rise significantly in early August, when a lockup expiry hits. That expiry could add selling pressure at exactly the moment the company needs investor confidence.
The real test comes in early August, when the lockup expires and a wave of early holders can sell their shares for the first time.
